Application of Soil Water Index to landslide prediction in snowy regions: sensitivity analysis in Japan and preliminary results from Tomsk, Russia

Abstract Soil Water Index (SWI) represents the conceptual water stored in soil and is calculated using a three-layer tank model with hourly precipitation. In Japan, landslide disasters are likely to occur when SWI an event exceeds maximum value of past 10 years; however, snowmelt-driven have not been considered yet. Using that simultaneously calculates runoff, we implemented snowfall-accumulation-snowmelt processes into original applied modified meteorological data Tomsk, Russia, spring 2010 severe flood had occurred. We conducted sensitivity analysis precipitation snowy region Japan considering Russia available every 3 h. When input average three-hourly accumulated calculate SWI, result was almost identical observed being given. then estimated temperature by linearly interpolating h, set threshold liquid/solid The degree-hour method employed snowmelt. predicted occurrence exceeded snowmelt season (March–May) for years. runoff captured timing 2010. demonstrated focusing on years, can predict disasters.